View From Lodi, CA: McCain Boxed In On Immigration

The

California GOP is in total denial.

As it wrapped up its convention last weekend,
delusional delegates predicted that Sen. John McCain
would not only battle on even footing whichever
Democratic candidate emerges but also stands a decent
chance to carry the state.

[“GOP Dares To Think McCain Can Win State,” Kevin
Yamamura, Sacramento Bee, February 24, 2008]

Blind optimism is to be expected.

California party leaders have to stir up the troops
to make sure the faithful vote. If they told the
truth—that

McCain doesn`t have a snowball`s chance—then the
Republicans would stay home and his beating would be
worse than anyone could have imagined.

Among McCain`s many problems in California is the
state`s voting pattern over the last two decades. Twenty
years have passed since a Republican presidential
candidate carried California—George
H.W. Bush in 1988.

The

last California Republican in the U.S. Senate was

Pete Wilson, elected in 1982. Coincidentally, Wilson
was also California`s last Republican governor, a
position he served in after he left the Senate.

My recap ignores

Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, the movie
star/politician elected more because of his Hollywood
image than his loose ties to Republican standards.

The majority of the California Republicans who have
run in the last twenty years for either president or
statewide federal office have been buried at the polls.

Included among those humbled by the voters is none
other than

Bill Jones who chairs McCain`s California effort.

You have to laugh at Jones`s appointment. While the
former California Secretary of State is a respected
figure in some conservative circles, Jones was last seen
getting

steamrolled by

Sen. Barbara Boxer in 2004 by a 20 percent margin.

If Jones knows anything about delivering California
votes, why didn`t he get more of them himself?

No matter how you analyze it, McCain comes up short
against either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama.

Looking at most key issues, McCain is out of step
with Californians. McCain is pro-life; the state—and
its elected officials— leans heavily toward choice.

Obama and Clinton want to start an Iraqi troop
reduction; McCain has consistently supported the war, a
stance that doesn`t play well in California.

On non-immigrant employment visas, the source of
thousands of lost California jobs, no one in the Senate
has a worse voting record than McCain`s endorsement of
foreign-born workers.

Only on amnesty for illegal immigrants, which McCain
favors, can he go toe to toe with the Democrats. But,
bad luck for him, he can`t out pander either Clinton or
Obama—their position is the same as his.

The irony is that, and this is what hurts McCain with
his party, amnesty is the biggest reason that
Republicans view him with such disdain.

What McCain does have going for him with Republican
voters is that he`s not a Democrat. That`s simplistic.
But it`s the reason behind whatever votes he will
get-although it will not be enough to pull off an upset
or come anywhere close.

In a

January News-Sentinel column, before McCain
pulled away from the Republican pack, I wrote that a CNN
political analyst summed the 2008 election up by saying:
“What strikes me is the lack of sincere enthusiasm
for any of the candidates.” The key word: “sincere“.

He was referring to Clinton and Obama but we can
safely include McCain.

And back in September

I wrote that if a third candidate enters the race, “anything
is possible.”

At the time, I had in mind New York Mayor

Michael Bloomberg who has since declared that

he will not run. But a third candidate,

Ralph Nader, has emerged.

Despite what you are reading about Nader being a
non-factor, I expect him to collect many more votes this
year than he did in 2004. His support will come from
disgruntled and disgusted middle class voters, Democrats
and Republicans alike who see through and are repulsed
by the three current leaders

Nader`s candidacy makes what I said last fall a
certainty: “anything is possible.”

Joe Guzzardi [email
him], an instructor in English
at the Lodi Adult School, has been writing a weekly
column since 1988. It currently appears in the

Lodi News-Sentinel.