Earlier: ”Track and Battlefield”: Sailer and Seiler on Women in Combat from 1997

With the Olympics coming up this summer in Paris only three years after the COVID-delayed Olympics in Tokyo, here’s a preprint attempting to debunk my arguments, going back to 1997, that Olympic running performance is related to human biodiversity.

Revisiting Stereotypes: Race and Running

Tade Souaiaiaa, Nabie Fofanah, Rawle De Lisle and Sheena Mason

The athletic achievements of African athletes in global running championships have long been subject to scientific and sociological inquiry. During the 1990s, a popular narrative emerged, suggesting that West African lineage conferred inherent sprinting advantages, and that North, South and East African’s are specialized for longer distances. Part and parcel to this narrative was the enthusiastic belief that it would very soon be substantiated by a genotyping revolution that would enable prognostication of individual athletic potential.

We revisit this hypothesis in the post-genomic era. First, we compare the global running records used to generate the racialist hypotheses with performances over the last twenty years (2004-2023). Focusing on the 100m reveals intriguing trends, including the ascendancy of Jamaica as a sprint powerhouse and the elevation of South African and East Asian sprinters to the global stage, a direct challenge to the racialist paradigm. In line with an in-depth analysis of the influences on elite runners, we build a regression model to predict 100m performance based on environmental and psychological factors.

Next, we direct our attention to 1500m, where the last two British champions have been part of a European resurgence that hasn’t been seen in decades. Examining three different time periods, we identify a thirty year national slowdown (1989-2018). Adapting our model to this time period reveals striking evidence that racial perception has greater impact on performance than racial physiology.

Synthesizing these findings, we introduce a psychocultural hypothesis, positing that interactions between racial perceptions and social dynamics shape the global distribution of running performance. We contrast this hypothesis with the racialist paradigm and propose extending it beyond sport where it offers insight across many domains.

The argument here is basically that if Nature can’t be proved beyond a shadow of a doubt to determine 100% of running results, then Nurture must be 100% responsible and race plays no role whatsoever other than stereotype threat.

Personally, I’ve always argued for the interplay of nature and nurture, but the authors and their friends appear to be convinced that that’s cheating: You’ve got to pick one and only one: nature or nurture? Which is it?

As I may have mentioned once or twice over the decades and millennia, in the race for the World’s Fastest Man, the Olympic 100m dash, the eight finalists have been extraordinarily sub-Saharan by ancestry going back to the 1984 Los Angeles Olympics. At present, 79 of the last 80 finalists across the last ten Olympics have had at least one parent of primarily sub-Saharan ancestry.

On the other hand, a Chinese guy, Su Bingtian, broke that streak in 2021 by not just qualifying but winning his semifinal with a 9.83, using a spectacular start and then grimly muscling his way over the finish line in first:

And the fellow who almost caught him in the semi and won gold in the final with a 9.80, Lamont Marcell Jacobs, has an African American dad but a white mom.

So it could be that sprinting is getting slightly more diverse.

But still… 79 out of 80.

Most of the arguments the authors come up with are either ones that I’ve come up with too, or direct analogies. For example, they argue that countries go through cycles of greatness, such as British middle distance champions Steve Ovett, Sebastian Coe, and Steve Cram in the 1980s, or, with perhaps excessive enthusiasm, the British “Return to Greatness” in the mile since 2019.

I could well believe that an efflorescence of competition could egg runners on to great performances, as in Britain in the 1980s, whereas a decline in competition could sap times, as in America in the same era. Likewise, I wrote in 2004:

Why don’t American distance runners run as fast as they once did? It appears to be an instructive interaction of nature and nurture.

The decline has been absolute, not just relative to the rest of the world. From 1965 through 1967, three American high school boys (Jim Ryun [now a GOP Congressman from Kansas], Marty Liquori, and Tim Danielson) ran the mile in under four minutes. It didn’t happen again until Alan Webb did it in 2001. I suspect that what took the air out of the American middle distance balloon was Kenyan Kip Keino beating Ryun at Mexico City in the 1500m in 1968. This was at high altitude, where Keino was at home, so it didn’t seem so bad at first, but then the Kenyans just kept on winning. A huge boom in recreational distance running started in America in 1972 when Frank Shorter won the Olympic Marathon, but it didn’t lead to a new generation of world-class runners. The top endurance talent must have gone into mountain climbing or triathlons or bicycle racing or something else where they didn’t have to
compete with the Kenyans.

Anyway, here are currently the 100 fastest marathon runners of all time. The authors decline to consider marathon running for reasons. But it looks pretty informative to me:

Competitor	DOB	Nat	Ethnicity
Kelvin KIPTUM	02 Dec 1999	KEN
Eliud KIPCHOGE	05 Nov 1984	KEN
Kenenisa BEKELE	13 Jun 1982	ETH
Sisay LEMMA	12 Dec 1990	ETH
Benson KIPRUTO	17 Mar 1991	KEN
Birhanu LEGESE	11 Sep 1994	ETH
Mosinet GEREMEW	12 Feb 1992	ETH
Timothy KIPLAGAT	18 Sep 1993	KEN
Dennis KIMETTO	22 Apr 1984	KEN
Evans CHEBET	10 Nov 1988	KEN
Gabriel Gerald GEAY	10 Sep 1996	TAN
Lawrence CHERONO	07 Aug 1988	KEN
Alexander Mutiso MUNYAO	10 Sep 1996	KEN
Emmanuel MUTAI	12 Oct 1984	KEN
Wilson Kipsang KIPROTICH	15 Mar 1982	KEN
Amos KIPRUTO	16 Sep 1992	KEN
Vincent Kipkemoi NGETICH	03 Jan 1999	KEN
Mule WASIHUN	20 Oct 1993	ETH
Tadese TAKELE	03 Aug 2002	ETH
Deresa GELETA		ETH
Getaneh MOLLA	10 Jan 1994	ETH
Bashir ABDI	10 Feb 1989	BEL	Somali
Patrick Makau MUSYOKI	02 Mar 1985	KEN
Tamirat TOLA	11 Aug 1991	ETH
Herpasa NEGASA	11 Sep 1993	ETH
Guye Idemo ADOLA	20 Oct 1990	ETH
Morhad AMDOUNI	21 Jun 1988	FRA	Tunisian
Dawit WOLDE	19 May 1991	ETH
Stanley Kipleting BIWOTT	21 Apr 1986	KEN
Kinde ATANAW	15 Apr 1993	ETH
Reuben Kiprop KIPYEGO	21 Aug 1996	KEN
Haile GEBRSELASSIE	18 Apr 1973	ETH
Leul GEBRESILASE	20 Sep 1992	ETH
Marius KIPSEREM	17 May 1988	KEN
Asefa MENGSTU	22 Jan 1988	ETH
Bernard Kiprop KOECH	31 Jan 1988	KEN
Geoffrey MUTAI	07 Oct 1981	KEN
Kaan Kigen ÖZBILEN	15 Jan 1986	TUR	Kenyan
Barnabas KIPTUM	08 Dec 1986	KEN
Joshua BELET	10 Feb 1998	KEN
Elisha ROTICH	12 Apr 1990	KEN
Ronald KORIR	10 Apr 1991	KEN
Ayele ABSHERO	28 Dec 1990	ETH
Geoffrey KAMWOROR	22 Nov 1992	KEN
Tesfaye ABERA	31 Mar 1992	ETH
Duncan KIBET	25 Apr 1978	KEN
James Kipsang KWAMBAI	28 Feb 1983	KEN
Sammy KITWARA	26 Nov 1986	KEN
Vincent KIPCHUMBA	03 Aug 1990	KEN
Seifu TURA	19 Jun 1997	ETH
Tsegaye MEKONNEN	15 Jun 1995	ETH
Dickson CHUMBA	27 Oct 1986	KEN
Jonathan Kipleting KORIR	20 Nov 1986	KEN
Hayle LEMI	13 Sep 1994	ETH
CyBrian KOTUT	06 Jun 1992	KEN
Hiskel TEWELDE	15 Sep 1986	ERI
Bethwel KIBET	04 Aug 1991	KEN
Tsegaye KEBEDE	15 Jan 1987	ETH
Solomon DEKSISA	11 Mar 1994	ETH
Hailemaryam KIROS	05 Feb 1997	ETH
Haftu TEKLU	21 Jan 2000	ETH
El Hassan EL ABBASSI	13 Apr 1984	BRN	Moroccan
Asrar HIYRDEN	25 Nov 1999	ETH
Hillary KIPSAMBU	04 Feb 1985	KEN
Andualem BELAY	05 Apr 1992	ETH
Lelisa DESISA	14 Jan 1990	ETH
Titus EKIRU	02 Jan 1992	KEN
Mekuant AYENEW	24 Oct 1991	ETH
Yemane TSEGAY	08 Apr 1985	ETH
Berhanu SHIFERAW	31 May 1993	ETH
Barselius KIPYEGO	22 Jul 1993	KEN
Stephen KISSA	01 Dec 1988	UGA
Kibiwott KANDIE	20 Jun 1996	KEN
Tadesse TOLA	31 Oct 1987	ETH
Shura KITATA	09 Jun 1996	ETH
Tsegaye GETACHEW	30 Nov 1996	ETH
Dino SEFIR	28 May 1988	ETH
Getu FELEKE	28 Nov 1986	ETH
Abebe NEGEWO	20 May 1984	ETH
Daniel DO NASCIMENTO	28 Jul 1998	BRA	Black Brazilian
Feyisa LILESA	01 Feb 1990	ETH
Endeshaw NEGESSE	13 Mar 1988	ETH
Kenneth Kiprop KIPKEMOI	02 Aug 1984	KEN
Mathew Kipkoech KISORIO	16 May 1989	KEN
Chalu DESO	14 Dec 1997	ETH
Abayneh DEGU	01 Dec 1998	ETH
Brimin KIPKORIR	1989	KEN
Gashau AYALE	22 Aug 1996	ISR	Ethiopian
Markos GENETI	07 Jun 1984	ETH
Titus KIPRUTO	25 Jun 1998	KEN
Paul TERGAT	17 Jun 1969	KEN
Sammy Kipchoge KORIR	12 Dec 1971	KEN
Jonathan MAIYO	05 May 1988	KEN
Kengo SUZUKI	11 Jun 1995	JPN	Japanese
Abdi NAGEEYE	02 Mar 1989	NED	Somali
Philemon KIPLIMO	10 Oct 1998	KEN
Bazezew ASMARE	11 Sep 1996	ETH
Amanal PETROS	17 May 1995	GER	Eritrean
Gadisa BIRHANU	15 Sep 1992	ETH
Philemon RONO	08 Feb 1991	KEN

It appears to be 1 Japanese, 1 black Brazilian, 2 North Africans, and a whole bunch of East Africans, almost all of them Kenyans or Ethiopians. Among the top 100 all-time marathoners, there are 46 running for Ethiopia and 44 running for Kenya.

What about among the top 100 100-meter men?

Among the top 100 all-time 100-meter men (9.94 or lower), there is one East Asian (Su Bingtian), one white (Frenchman Christophe LeMaitre), one half Australian Aborigine and half Irishman (Patrick Johnson), and one Cape Coloured (Wayde Van Niekerk). I believe there are two half-blacks (Jacobs and Jimmy Vicault, although I could be understating this number).

Guess the Nilotic marathoner vs. the Bantu 100m man

There is now one East African top man in the 100m, Ferdinand Omanyala of Kenya. Yet, note that he is of the Bantu tribe, which is quite distinct from the Nilotic Luo tribe of former president Obama. Omanyala is much wider and more muscular than the Kenyan Nilotic Kalenjin distance runners, such as marathon great Eliud Kipchoge.

The authors make a big deal about how the fact that there are now five Southern Africans (and one Southwest African, 1990s star Frankie Fredericks of Namibia) somehow disproves the “racialist” perspective that West Africans are better at sprinting and East Africans at distance running, but the theory was always that sub-Saharans have overall advantages in running speed that are partly specialized by sprint vs. distance.

43 of the top 100m men are African-American, 32 are ethnically Caribbean, and 11 of the top 100 are ethnically recent West Africans.

The authors emphasize that West Africans are not as abundant as the theory that West Africa is the motherlode of sprint speed would suggest, but there are obvious nurture differences: life expectancy in Nigeria is only 54 years compared to 74 years in Jamaica.

So, I dunno. It looks like, as of 2024, that both Nature and Nurture play significant roles in running performance. But then I’m a bad person, so I would say that, wouldn’t I?

[Comment at Unz.com]