Blog Posts

Sean Trende On The Sailer Strategy

Sean Trende writes in RealClearPolitics on why Obama's Administrative Amnesty is a bad thing for Obama—for reasons that we've been talking about for more than  ten years, and that we call the Sailer Strategy. (This is an excerpt, and the links in it are Trende's)

1) Latinos are underrepresented in swing states. While the Latino vote is frequently portrayed as a critical voting bloc, in truth it is concentrated in only a few swing states with just a handful of electoral votes. The only states where Latinos make up more than 10 percent of the electorate are: Arizona (16 percent of the electorate in 2008), California (18 percent), Colorado (13 percent), Florida (14 percent), Nevada (15 percent), New Mexico (41 percent), and Texas (20 percent).

Of these, only Colorado, Florida, and Nevada are swing states; New Mexico and Arizona are at best borderline swing states. In Florida, the Latino vote largely (though decreasingly) comprises voters of Cuban descent and is therefore atypical of other Latino electorates.

So in the end, we’re talking about Colorado and Nevada as the states where this is likely to produce dividends of any size, for a total of 15 electoral votes.

2) There is a trade-off here. Fifteen electoral votes could still be crucial in a close election. But here’s the rub: The analyses that focus only on the potential effect among Latino voters miss half of the equation: The potential effect among white voters.

I’ve made this point before, but consider the case of Arizona. For many liberal commentators, the silver lining to

NY Times Columnist Doubts Political Profitability Of Obama's Youth Amnesty!

Ross Douthat has been a columnist The New York Times since 2009: I doubt he will be there much longer.

 In The Media and Obama’s Immigration Gambit June 18, 2012 Douthat has the temerity to question the political wisdom behind the Obama Youth Amnesty and – even more heretical – he does so by thinking in terms of race:

Hispanics were still only about 10 percent of the electorate four years ago, whereas whites without college degrees were almost 40 percent. This meant that even though Obama won about 67 percent of Hispanics and only 40 percent of white working class voters, he still won millions more working class white votes in total — and needs to win at least some

"Why Elites Fail"

From The Nation

Why Elites Fail 

The False Promise Of Cyberspace

Aaron Renn makes an interesting argument in City Journal:

You Had Me At "Romney Vague"

From the Guardian, which could have just stopped after saying "Romney Vague"

How Media Manipulation Made Both The Rodney King Case And The LA Riots

I may be the only person in North America who was sentient in 1991 yet didn't see the endlessly-replayed videotape of "Rodney King's beating by the LAPD."  (This was before the internet, and I essentially never watch TV.)

How The Obama Regime DREAM Act Amnesty Will Expand

Overlooked in the Obama Regime assault on the Constitution during the recent announcement of a DREAM Act amnesty for illegal aliens age 30 and under is the recent decision by the Ninth Circus Court of Schlemiels that laid the basis for a group of illegal aliens not benefiting from the earlier Obama Regime Administrative Amnesty to claim rights under that earlier amnesty.

The Demographics Of Pointless, Futile, Gun Buybacks in Chicago And Elsewhere

Gun buybacks are pretty useless. Sometimes pro-gun activists will turn in thirty dollar guns for the hundred dollar credit, and tell the press they're investing them in a Glock. Libertarian Steve Chapman notes  the uselessness, and mentions the demographic aspect:

A Revenge Killing "Gone Wrong"

Cornell SmithLawrence Auster has discussed, repeatedly, what he describes as the

Obama Executive Amnesty: Now for the Sob Stories Abroad

How quickly the dinosaur media reacts when the sniffles of diverse persons are available to be propagated. The President announced his work-permit and no-deport plan on Friday, and the AP has a story with several deported young foreigners (including one DIY) on Sunday, where they tell their sad stories of what could have been had they not been treated to a free ride home.

 

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If only they could have stayed in America, the foreigners complain, they could have availed themselves of the wonderful opportunities. None gives a thought to taking a college slot or job from a deserving young citizen, of course.

There are many disturbing aspects to Obama’s political slight-of-hand, not the least of which is the damage done to American basics like the rule of law and the separation of powers. Charles Krauthammer called the amnesty ploy “out-and-out lawlessness.”

But another effect is to wave the welcome mat at billions of poor around the world with the message that America’s admittedly imperfect attempt at immigration enforcement has been cratered by design. Obama’s sketchy requirements are guarantee of future job stability for forgers, where document designers can lower ages on paper to the desired under-30 as necessary.

Congressman Lamar Smith’s June 15 statement included the fraud factor:

“President Obama’s amnesty only benefits illegal immigrants,

Has Romney Sold Immigration Policy To Sheldon Adelson?

Adelson

Sheldon Adelson: Wonderful what you can buy with money!

Harmful Employment Effects of Obama Amnesty Are Observed

It may be that Obama’s use of the phrase “work authorization” may be more alarming to the American public than the term “amnesty,” because while the latter can be mentally filed away in the immigration category, anything having to do with employment affects everyone directly or indirectly. Creating 2-3 million additional legal workers overnight to compete with citizens in this brutal economy gets universal attention.

 

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Here’s what the President said on Friday regarding the policy changes he ordered:

“Effective immediately, the Department of Homeland Security is taking steps to lift the shadow of deportation from these young people. Over the

The Rules Are Different In NYC (Cont.)

A slide show in the New York Times about a public school in the Williamsburg section of Brooklyn: "Hopes for Diversity at a Brooklyn School." The accompanying article is entitled "Integrating a School, One Child at a Time,"

"Moonrise Kingdom"

I finally saw a Wes Anderson movie with an audience, and I was rather surprised to find that about half the crowd found Moonrise Kingdom consistently funny, which has just left me more puzzled than before. I had made my peace with the idea that while Wes Anderson movies (e.g., RushmoreThe Royal TennenbaumsThe Life Aquatic with Steve Zissou -- not to be confused with Paul Thomas Anderson movies like Punch-Drunk Love and There Will Be Blood) look like they are going to be funny, that the reason they aren't f

A Good "Not Reporting Race" Post From 24Ahead.com

A good "Not Reporting Race" post from 24Ahead.com. A standard mob attack by "teens" in Oregon was reported properly by police, and by other media outlets, but not at The Oregonian. See the details at 24Ahead.com, with a useful table comparing coverage. I'll just quote one thing from a commenter at the The Oregonian:


Rodney King, RIP

Rodney King, age 47, was found dead at the bottom of his swimming pool.

King wasn't the best swimmer, but he was a tough guy. He could take a licking and keep on ticking. If you had just led two dozen policemen on a 100mph chase, and now the adrenaline-crazed cops were all over you, you'd probably stop fighting back and give in after the eighth or twelfth baton blow. Not Rodney King.

Rodney King: The Wicked Witch Is Dead

Well, not a witch, but good riddance to bad rubbish anyway.

Mittens Muffs DREAM Adminstrative Amnesty On Sunday Talk Show--Grassroots Reaction Now Critical

GOP presidential nominee-presumptive Mittens Romney refused to say he would reverse the Obama Adminstrative Amnesty's extension to the DREAM Act on CBS's Face The Nation this morning, perfecting the profile of cowardice and stupidity he has shown since the story broke last week.

Obama's Immigration Coup: If GOP Afraid To Defend Americans, How About Defending The Constitution?

Constitution

Signing the Constitution, 1787: A Dead White Male Irrelevance?